Universal, equitable, and affordable access to
the national information infrastructure (NII) is achievable
over the next 5 to 7 years. However, our switched and broadcast
telecommunications industries have not been given the national
goal and task of pursuing the network architecture and technologies
that can provide such access to interactive media public utility
services.
At present, these communications industries are
pursuing variations of the personal computer and TV set-top
box network architecture models. These public network architectures
are inappropriate and have economic handicaps that will cause
them to fail in the provision of universal access and service
for the American public. However, there is at least one network
architecture model—DTMF-TV—that does appear capable of delivering
on the NII promise. This "architecture," based on the existing
and universally available telephone and NTSC video networks,
can provide universal and affordable access to the Internet,
the Library of Congress, and any other source of entertainment
and knowledge
1. However, the NII needs an encouraging, supporting,
and regulating public policy. This public policy should provide
for the nationwide common carriage of real-time addressable
video to the home, equal access to cable TV head ends for interactive
multimedia providers, and the appropriate video dialtone rules.
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
The national information infrastructure (NII)
is totally dependent on the proper convergence of our public
switched telecommunications network (PSTN) and mass media public
broadcast network (PBN) into a nationwide telecomputer system.
Two predominant network architecture models and one emerging
model are competing to be "the" information superhighway. The
interactive media network architecture deployed by our nation's
cable and telephone companies will have a significant impact
on whether the general public will begin to have equal, affordable,
and universal access to the NII by 2000. Over the next 5 to
7 years we can expect the interactive multimedia industry to
continue to improve PC technology and program content. However,
the model that posits a PC in every home, connected to an online
network of "PC" telecomputer systems, will fail to provide universal
access to the NII because of the economic burden of PC hardware
and software purchase and maintenance, and their constant obsolescence.
Similarly, today's cable and telco interactive TV trials, using
the TV set-top box telecomputer system model, will also fail
to provide universal access because of the same economic burdens
of their underlying telecomputer network architecture. Unless
the PSTN and PBN industries change their current architectural
focus, we will continue down paths that will lead to greater
division between our nation's information haves and have-nots.
To best serve the public with interactive media
services will require a fully integrated system of switched
and broadcasted telecommunications common carriers. Considering
the asymmetrical nature of interactive multimedia networks,
the switching technology and broadband distribution media are
already in place to integrate these information superhighways
in a way that is economical for universal access
2. Unfortunately, these key NII elements are owned
primarily by two competing corporate entities within any given
geographic locality. Even the aborted Bell Atlantic-TIC megamerger
reveals the economic shortcomings of integrating the broadband
loops of cable TV with the switches and back-office operations
of telcos when they are not located within the same geographic
locality. As a result, these telco and cable companies are struggling
to add to their networks what the other already has in operation.
For two capital-intensive industries, this economically taxing
competition begs the public policy question: If building the
information superhighway is so expensive, why, as a nation,
are we trying to build two of them? The problem is that public
policy has not charged our PSTN and PBN industries with the
goal and task of creating a new and shared "public utility"
system nationwide, a public telecomputer network (PTN)
providing universal and equal access to interactive media on
a common carrier basis. This is the strange attractor toward
which our communications and computing industries have been
converging since the breakup of the Bell system. However, the
current chaos will continue and public network engineers will
pursue inappropriate network architectures until our country
proclaims such a goal with the proper laws to encourage, support,
and regulate the enterprise.
BACKGROUND
Before 1993, the public policy issues surrounding
the evolving NII were mostly limited to industrial infighting.
It was the telcos versus newspapers over interpretation of the
MFJ, broadcasters versus studios over Fin/Syn rules, and everyone
taking opposing positions on the FCC's proposed video dialtone
rules. These public policy debates were, for the most part,
kept within the communications industry establishment and the
hallways and offices of Congress and the FCC. Then someone said
"500 TV channels," and visions of the entertainment possibilities
and public service opportunities moved from the industry trade
rags to the front pages and covers of our national consumer
publications. This media attention captured the public's imagination
as the now infamous information superhighway.
Since then, most of our leading telecommunications
and media executives have declared themselves "infobahn" road
warriors. They rushed off to announce their respective interactive
multimedia trials and megamergers to deliver tele-this, cyber-that,
and your own personal virtual-reality Xanadu. Within the next
5 to 7 years, the public will expect the NII, as the next generation's
"public network" of switched and broadcasted communications,
to deliver on these entertainment, education, and public utility
promises. This is a major undertaking for private industry and
public policymakers. To understand the network and regulatory
engineering paradigm shift that must take place, one needs to
comprehend the existing and evolving public network infrastructure
within a common context. That context is "video dialtone."
The current state of play within the industry
involves two predominant, and one emerging, telecomputer system
models. A telecomputer system, in the fuzzy macro context of
the NII, is the mass media system that our nation's cable and
telephone companies are striving to create to deliver interactive
digital everything to the consuming public. It is the underlying
hardware infrastructure that will integrate telecommunications,
television, computing, and publishing into a seamless national
multimedia network.
The older and more familiar of the predominant
telecomputer models is that of the PC in every home connected
to the Internet and other packet-switched networks of computers.
This is the "PC" model. Although this model was a dismal failure
as a mass medium during the brief videotext era, it has had
a recent resurgence encouraged by flashy multimedia PCs, GUIs,
CD-ROMs, and the explosive worldwide growth of the Internet.
The champions of this model tend to be the manufacturers and
sophisticated users of advanced PCs, workstations, and high-speed
data networking gear. The essential NII elements that this model
brings to a telecomputer architecture are those that offer the
most artistic, creative, and communication freedoms to users,
programmers, and publishers.
The other predominant model, getting off to a
dubious start, is that of the "smart" TV set-top box (TSB) in
every home interfacing with a video server. This is the "TSB"
telecomputing model. This model is the result of recent advances
in microprocessor, video compression, and network transmission
technologies. The champions of this model tend to be the manufacturers
of cable converters, microprocessors, and midrange computers
in partnership with cable and television companies. In apparent
conflict with the PC model, the essential NII elements of the
TSB network architecture are those necessary for responsible
mass media broadcasting and network operator control. More important
for the NII, the TSB telecomputer model recognizes the public
utility potential of an unlimited number of addressable video
channels to the consumer.
These two models expose most of the essential
NII elements perceived by the converging industries as necessary
for the successful introduction of a new mass medium. Between
the two, it is possible to extract the inherent objective of
a telecomputer system. The objective is to offer all consumers
the potential and opportunity for interactive access to all
multimedia publications over a public network. The objective
is also to provide this access in a responsible and socially
acceptable manner. Although each of the incumbent models has
technical and philosophical advantages over the other, neither
will pass the test of being economically feasible as a mass
medium.
Taking lessons from early industry trial experiences
and failures, just now emerging is a third telecomputer model.
This telecomputer model envisions the public using ordinary
telephones and Touch-Tone (DTMF) signaling over PSTN networks,
and using only the buttons of an ordinary telephone as an interactive
TV (ITV) "remote unit" to access and interact with centralized
computers broadcasting user-personalized output over ordinary
NTSC video channels. This telecomputer network architecture
combines the best of the other two models in a way that can
offer universal access to interactive multimedia services. The
DTMF-TV model can deliver on the promise of common carrier interactive
TV and programmer competition. Whether or not this public utility
service will be made available to the public over the next 5
to 7 years will depend on the creation of a new video dialtone
policy, a policy that will lead to fully integrated switched
and broadcasted services on an equal access and common carrier
basis. Such an NII policy should influence the choice of an
appropriate telecomputer network architecture by our nation's
cable and telephone engineers.
ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
Video Dialtone(s)
To use video dialtone as a common context for
NII issues, we need to define it. There are three distinct types
of video dialtone networks and regulatory models. The first
compares to traditional PSTN services because that is all it
is. This video dialtone is now finding its way into the marketplace
as compressed video teleconferencing and transfers of digital
data to office desktops via multimedia workstations and data
networking services. As the economics for these switched services
improve, this form of video dialtone will likely find its way
into the homes of telecommuters. Over the next 5 to 7 years,
videophones and PC videoconferencing windows will penetrate
the home in the same way that facsimile machines and other home
office productivity tools do. This form of video dialtone, VD-1,
is only a common carrier's analog or digital switched service
offered on demand. Switched point-to-point and bridged two-way
point-to-multipoint communications, video or not, are covered
by generally accepted PSTN regulations and tariffs.
The second form of video dialtone originates from
satellite and local TV transmitters over federally regulated
and licensed public spectrum. It also comes from cable TV head
ends transmitting over locally franchised rights-of-way. This
form of "passive" video dialtone is one means of access to the
consuming audiences of the PBN. The public's TVs are now limited
to receiving their principal choices for necessary, convenient,
and entertaining or interesting passive video program transmissions
in this form. This nonswitched one-way, point-to-multipoint
video delivery is the most efficient and economical method to
distribute high-quality video programming to the viewing public
on a "scheduled" basis. Advances in digital video compression
and fiber optic transmission technologies have led to the potential
for a quantum leap in the number of broadcast video channels
that can be delivered to the public. These developments led
to the so-called 500 channels and video-on-demand bandwagons.
However, this form of video dialtone, VD-2, does not yet have
a recognized and accepted common carrier regulatory model. When
approached from the common carrier perspective there are some
natural, yet severe, technical and network architecture limitations.
These limitations relate to channel and time slot availability
and social responsibility concerns. If the NII is to include
a common carrier infrastructure that would permit any programmer
or content creator equal access to America's TV audiences, the
evolving public network will require a virtually unlimited number
of addressed video channels.
The third form of video dialtone is an integrated
media mix of the PSTN and PBN, a "mix" permitting services with
favorable economics for a national interactive multimedia medium.
It is this evolving new form of public network dialtone (VD-1
+ VD-2) that is of particular interest to the NII. This form
of video dialtone is VD-3. It will be those "interactive and
on-demand multimedia communications" services available from
nationwide PTN networks on a common carrier basis. This form
of video dialtone will satisfy the promises hyped to the public,
thus far, as the information superhighway
3.
Telco (VD-1) and Cable (VD-2) Subscribers: One and the Same
(VD-3)
A major factor affecting the evolution of the
NII and the technology to be deployed for it is the need for
a clearer understanding of just who are the "public" in the
evolving public network. As the now separated wireline network
industries converge on the fully integrated network services
"attractor," the characteristics that once distinguished video
broadcast (VD-2) from switched telephony (VD-1) subscribers
are rapidly blurring. This phenomenon will dramatically influence
the VD-3 or "interactive video dialtone" regulatory model. Do
cable subscribers want to subsidize cable's entry into telephony
any more than telco subscribers want to subsidize telco's entry
into cable? From an NII public policy standpoint, these subscribers
are one and the same. They should not be burdened with paying
for a redundant infrastructure in the name of full-service networks'
competition in a "natural monopoly" environment. To further
compound this issue, as the wireless industries of over-the-air,
satellite, and microwave broadcasters also converge on the same
"fully integrated network services" attractor over the next
5 to 7 years, the issue of "who are the public" as public utility
subscribers accessing this evolving public network will become
even more blurred.
Over the next 3 to 5 years we can expect that
the quest for spectrum efficiency on the cabled wireline side,
through digital compression and multiplexing, will apply equally
to the wireless over-the-air side of VD-2 video broadcasting.
As the broadcasters of subscription channels (e.g., HBO, Showtime,
Cinemax) continue to explore multicasting opportunities (e.g.,
HBO-1/2/3, ESPN and ESPN2), one can expect the more traditional
VHF and UHF networks of the PBN (i.e., CBS, ABC, NBC, Fox) to
want access to the same commercial opportunities. This trend,
however, will require the NII to set VD-2 standards for compressed
audio and video broadcasting in order to encourage a market
for the associated consumer electronics (i.e., wireline and
wireless broadcast receivers) and other addressable customer
premises equipment (CPE). These standards may be based on a
version of the Motion Pictures Encoding Group (MPEG) standard,
the Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) standard, or
some future NTSC/FCC or industry digital standard. This trend
of subscriber evolution is even more apparent when one considers
the eventual societal ramifications of video on demand (VOD),
near-VOD (NVOD), and other on-demand "audience targeting" (e.g.,
billing, screening, selectivity, transactional) functionality.
The fundamental NII element at issue here is broadband household
"addressability" in the mass media environment of broadcast
video networks (VD-2). Beginning with the addition of the ever
increasing numbers of pay-per-view (PPV) channels that will
eventually constitute NVOD, over the next 3 to 5 years cabled
systems will continue to expand the commercial opportunities
associated with VD-2 addressability. It is this addressability
element and the efficiency of electronic distribution that will
eventually attract the direct mail and advertising industry
into the interactive multimedia (analog and digital) convergence.
Also attracted will be the catalog shopping industry as a natural
evolution of the switched telephone (i.e., 800-number service,
VD-1) and broadcasted NTSC video (i.e., VHF, UHF, CATV, VD-2)
TV home shopping industry. As the electronic publishing industry
(i.e., audio, video, and multimedia programmers) converges on
a single and fully integrated VD-3 or (VD-1 + VD-2) communications
network, the concept of "the subscriber" will evolve from one
of being either a VD-1 (i.e., telco) or VD-2 (i.e., CATV) subscriber
to that of being a VD-3 subscriber more closely resembling an
a la carte magazine subscriber in a "common carrier" postal
distribution system.
I Have an Address . . . Therefore I Am
The bottom line is that the regulatory model for
the NII must acknowledge the emergence of a new public utility
network system that will eventually, among other things, enhance
if not replace our national postal system and local systems
of public and private libraries, bookstores, movie theaters,
and video rental outlets. The NII is a public network that carries
broadcasted (VD-2) and switched (VD-1) information and entertainment
(i.e., electronic communications and publishing) to the "addressable
households" of VD-3 (i.e., NII) subscribers.
Utility Potential Comes from Controlled Flow
Assuming a proper interactive video dialtone (VD-3)
regulatory model for the encouragement of an NII with public
utility potential, the services for these subscribers will have
to come from someone. That someone will be those corporate and
commercial entities investing in the necessary hardware, software,
and "wetware" (i.e., R&D and other creative talents) for
some given and recognized, regulated and unregulated, return
on investment(s). This brings us back to PTN architecture and
the technology deployment issues. The PTN hardware/software,
regardless of architecture model (i.e., PC, TSB, DTMF-TV), for
delivering and controlling the public utility potential of an
information "flow" consists of the following elements:
-
"Pipes" (e.g., DS-0, ISDN, SONET, NTSC,
and other transmission standards);
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